The day after the election has brought a new surprise to the table.  Incumbent District 4 Senator Antonio (L) has decided to resign, leading to a special election in District 4.  Once a reliable right-leaning district, the left, led by the Socialist Party, has made gains in the district over the last couple of months, culminating in a special election that led to a tie and a coin flip that resulted in victory for now-Senator Smith (L) over former Chief Whip Koay (S).  The district recently re-elected Senator Smith with 54.5% of the vote in a 3-way race.  With the right candidate, District 4 is in play for a left pickup and will likely be a close election.

The District:
District 4 used to be considered a staunch Republican/Libertarian stronghold, but has recently shifted left in recent elections and has now become a right-leaning swing district.  Here are the most recent election results from the district.

October Class Two General Election:
Senator Smith (inc.) (L): 54.5%
Sec. of Education Justice (S): 29.9%
Rep. John Darby (D): 15.6%
Libertarian hold

September Class Two Special Election:
Rep. Smith (L): 50.0%*
Minority Whip Koay (S): 50.0%
*Coin flip won by Rep. Smith
Libertarian gain from Republican

September Class One General Election:
Rep. Antonio (R*): 50.0% Rep. Cage: (S): 38.9%
Senator Johnson (inc.) (L): 11.1%
Republican gain from Libertarian

*Antonio switched from the Republican Party to the Libertarian Party during his term.

This district has shown a history of electing moderate candidates to office, and has a large bloc of high profile moderates in the district, including GOPers Davis, Watkins, and formerly Lukas, as well as Libertarians such as former Senator Antonio and current Senator Smith on the moderate right, and SP House Leader Johnson on the moderate left.

The Candidates:
Rep. Koay (S)
Rep. Stefano Gallo (R)
Rep. Zach LeMaire (L)
Rep. Alex (D)
Rep. Lukas (I)

The candidate field for this election is very large, with one candidate from each party plus former Vice President Lukas running as an Independent.  This makes the D4 election one of the most compelling elections in recent memory, as the sheer volume of candidates makes D4 a difficult race to predict.  Here’s a brief look into each candidate.

Representative Koay
Party: Socialist
Highest position held: Speaker Pro Tempore

Representative Koay is one of the favorites to win this seat, and for good reason.  He nearly won in this district roughly one month ago, losing on a coin flip to now Senator Smith.  He comes into this campaign with the Socialist Party united behind him and a very active campaign thus far.  Although a staunch progressive, Koay has proven his ability to be competitive in this right-leaning swing district.

The X-Factor: The sim component will likely benefit Rep. Koay the most of anyone in this race.  He’s run the most active campaign of anyone so far, and with the simulated component being more heavily weighted, that will benefit active campaigns like Representative Koay’s the most.

Representative Stefano Gallo
Party: Republican
Highest position held: Representative

Representative Gallo is one of the underdogs in this race.  He’s among the most conservative Republicans in Congress, and has focused his campaign on issues such as gun rights and support of law enforcement.  The Republican Party has been silent on his candidacy so far, and he will need those votes to have a chance at making this seat competitive for the GOP.

The X-Factor: 
The GOP has recently shifted to the right, with moderate RNC Chair Davis being replaced by Soren Dillinger, a well-known conservative.  Likewise, former Party Leader Ian, a libertarian conservative with socially progressive values, has been replaced by former President James, a staunch pro-life advocate and conservative.  

Furthermore, the performance of insurgent conservative candidate John Dixon in the Republican presidential primary last cycle, in which he earned nearly 30% of the Republican primary vote, means that conservatives are regaining ground in the GOP, which, if Mr. Gallo can harness that energy, he can turn in a stronger-than expected performance in this election.

Representative Zach LeMaire
Party: Libertarian
Highest position held: Representative

Representative LeMaire, a Libertarian, is also a relative unknown in this race.  He’s running on a fairly moderate libertarian platform, emphasizing collaboration over sheer ideological battles, following closely with the model of Libertarians who have won this seat in the past.  His debate performance was well-received, and he has earned the endorsement of the Libertarian Party, a huge boon to his candidacy in what is arguably the strongest Libertarian district.

The X-Factor:  
The Libertarian Party’s endorsement of Mr. LeMaire has a huge impact on this race.  In addition to that, there are numerous moderate Republicans who are not thrilled with the conservative Republican candidate Gallo.  If LeMaire can pull those Republicans to the Libertarian ticket, LeMaire becomes a legitimate contender to win this seat.

Representative Alex
Party: Democratic
Highest position held: Committee Ranking Member

Representative Alex has been a stalwart in Democratic politics for some time now, most notably a controversial stint as Chair of the Democratic National Committee.  Alex is one of the more well-known candidates in this race, but it remains to be seen if that will affect her candidacy in a positive or negative way.

The X-Factor:
Alex has run an active campaign thus far, which will likely cut into Representative Koay’s vote totals and his lead in the sim component.  Alex is also known to be a persistent whip who can get people to the polls, meaning that she could pull some surprisingly strong numbers, which in a five way race, could net her a victory with around 30% of the vote.

Representative Lukas
Party: Independent
Highest position held: Vice President

Former Vice President Lukas is easily the most high-profile candidate in this race, and the most experienced.  That alone makes him a contender to retake this seat.  A former Senator in this district, Lukas knows this district well and is known as a very good whip.  However, recent events such as a failed nomination for Attorney General and a controversial article accusing the Lilburne administration of setting him up to fail could hurt him in this race.

The X-Factor:
No one has more potential in coalition building in this election than Lukas.  Formerly a Republican, Lukas’s moderate libertarian beliefs are very much in line with voters in this district, considering the other Senator in the district is also a moderate libertarian.  It is conceivable that Lukas could build a coalition of moderate Republicans, Libertarians, Independents, and even some moderate Democrats that will push him across the finish line to win this election.

Final prediction:
Although this election will likely be split to the point where the winner may not crack 40%, the prediction is that Representative Koay will win a narrow victory due to a united Socialist base and potential crossover votes in the Democratic Party, coupled with his very active campaign. It is also likely that LeMaire and Lukas split the Libertarian/Moderate GOP coalition enough to allow Koay to squeak out a victory.
Prediction: Tilt Socialist