Undoubtedly one of the closest races in this month’s upcoming general election will be that of the District 5 Senate Race, an election for District 5’s Class one senate seat, currently the incumbent Senate President Pro Tempore Battle (L-VA). At first glance, this race may seem rather noncompetitive: after all, Senator Battle managed to edge out a majority of the vote in his September landslide victory, winning 61.9% of the vote, easily cruising to victory, defeating the incumbent of the race, then-Senate Minority Leader Carton (S-FR), who only squeaked out 19% of the popular vote. Yet another presence in the race was that of then-Speaker Pro Tempore Stewart (D-NY), who also took just 19% of the vote.

Senator Battle is one of the Senate’s most experienced and stoic figures; prior to his election as Senator, he served under the Ricca and Holbrook Administrations as Secretary of Defense, and had been one of the better-recognised faces in the Libertarian Party, a strong presence in District 5. While Senator Battle is undoubtedly one of the obvious frontrunner contenders to win the seat, having the advantage of incumbency, various indicators may be telling us that his victory is not one to so quickly assume.

A Veritas pre-election poll, conducted on the 26th of October, showed Senator Battle with a meager approval rating of just 28%, far below any of the other incumbents, most of whom have hit over 3/4 public support, and certainly unusual for an incumbent Senator, whom generally see rather high benchmarks of popular content.

The same poll shows just 8% of likely voters indicating they would support Senator Battle’s re-election, a real low for the Senate President, and by far the smallest share of the likely vote displayed by any incumbent Senator. Critics of the poll who may be quick to accuse underrepresentation of the Libertarian Party may also be pointed at the Libertarian Party’s impressive performance in other districts, such as District Four, where former-Senator Antonio looks to be a potential player for reclaiming his seat, having garnered 50% in the same poll, or District Two, where the Libertarians appeared to be in the kingmaker position, with neither the left nor the right having garnered a majority of support.

Furthermore, Senator Battle has made no statement at this time indicating that he has an intention to run for re-election. While he hasn’t necessarily put forward a statement to the contrary, he lack of movement from his campaign team so close to election seasons seems like an indication that, given these poor numbers and potentially other reasons, such as pursuit of a higher position or aiming at a return to the House, Senator Battle will NOT be running for re-election. What are some of the other contenders for this seat?

The incumbent Speaker Pro Tempore Broadman-Romerio (L-IT), who is currently serving as not only the right hand of Speaker Halpert, but also the Libertarian Party leader, has declared her candidacy for the District 5 seat. She’s a clear rising star in the halls of Congress, having served as Acting Speaker for much of the last month and pursued twice unsuccessfully the position of Speaker of the House. She’s also spent time, even if not in the big chair, not remotely in the backbenches, having been House Minority Whip and House Minority Leader. She’s undoubtedly got the credentials to run for this seat, but many are concerned that her rather shallow legislative record may pose a problem for her in the simulated component of the election, even if her broad approval rating and historical ability to build consensus may help push her across the finish line on election day.

The current House Minority Leader Kyouko (D-NY), who currently leads the Democratic Party and serves as House Minority Leader, has also declared her candidacy for the District 5 seat. This is her first time pursuing a Senate seat, so many may call her out for being quick to run for such an ambitious position. But like Broadman, it’s difficult to deny that she’s a rising star within the halls of Congress, and that she’s on her way up. She initially rose to prominence with the ranks of the Democratic Party, leading the contemporary reformist and progressive faction of the Democratic Party, first becoming a member of the DNC, and then moving on to become leader of her Party shortly after. She was briefly considered as incumbent President Lilburne’s choice for Vice President, before he opted for then-former Senator Wonder for the role. She has a strong legislative record, having written numerous successful bills, and with the Democratic Party behind her, it’s difficult to tell how she won’t be a real contender on election day.

There are plenty of other important figures to note, such as Secretary of the Treasury Carton, who may wish to through his hat in the ring for what used to be his seat. Many also have been looking to Advisor to the President Hersey, a longtime Democratic leader who may pose a challenge to Kyouko’s leadership on the Democratic tally of the vote. Congresswoman Sov, who ran for Senate in this same district last month, may be looking to again seek this race, which would of course lead to a primary within the Libertarian Party. There are many actors to note, but as it currently stands, the House Minority Leader and the Speaker Pro Tempore are the two largest figures in this district. As to who is likely to win…?

At this time, the Congressional Report is calling this seat TILT DEMOCRATIC. While the Libertarians have a track record of winning this seat, District 5’s other seat is occupied by another Democrat, Senator Morales, who won sweeping victories both times he has ran in this seat. The polls also currently reflect a large extend of support for the Democrats in this district, with a recent Veritas poll indicating a narrow majority of 54% of likely voters in District 5 support the Democrats.

However, the Democrats and indeed any observers would be foolish to cast out Broadman at this point. Her record, her historical extent of consensus building, her bona fides, and the general nature of this district to be a battleground all contribute to the Speaker Pro Tempore having a very real chance at taking this seat, and while the House Minority Leader may be the favourite for now, there’s no telling how the sands may shift in the days to come.

Stay tuned for election season.